Record · Verifiable outcomes only
Record & results
Seven outcomes that can be checked against official records — each traced from the problem it addressed to the result, the criticism it drew and the challenge that remains. A result here means something documented happened, not that it was the right policy.
- Direct mandates won
- 5 (2009–2025)
- Erststimmen 2025
- 45.5% · Paderborn
- CDU/CSU 2025
- 28.6% of second votes
- Laws he advocated, enacted
- Neue Grundsicherung · Aktivrente
- As minister
- PNOG adopted by cabinet, 30 Sep 2026
What counts as a result
This page deliberately avoids the vocabulary of success. Each entry follows the same six-step chain: the problem as it was described at the time, the response Linnemann advocated, the concrete action, the documented result, the criticism it drew from named or identifiable critics, and the remaining challenge.
Three limits apply. First, collective outcomes — party programmes, coalition laws, election results — are never attributed to one person; the chain records his role. Second, a cabinet decision is not a law, and a law is not yet an effect: where outcomes cannot yet be measured, the page says so. Third, results that are contested are shown with the contest. The objections are developed in full on the criticism and controversies page.
Five direct mandates in Paderborn
Office: Member of the Bundestag since 2009. The constituency was numbered 137 until 2021 and 136 from 2025; its boundaries changed in 2021.
Problem
A first-time candidate in 2009, aged 32, after a career as an economist at Deutsche Bank Research and IKB, with local experience on the Altenbeken municipal council (2004–2008).
Response
Stood for the direct mandate in the Paderborn constituency, a traditional CDU stronghold in East Westphalia.
Action
Five consecutive campaigns: 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025.
Result
Won all five. In 2025 he received 86,833 first votes (45.5%), 27.2 points ahead of the AfD candidate (18.3%), on a turnout of 83.1% (Federal Returning Officer).
Criticism
His first-vote share has fallen at each election since 2013 — from 59.1% to 45.5% — in line with the broader erosion of major-party vote shares; boundary changes limit direct comparison.
Remaining challenge
Combining a constituency role with ministerial office; the AfD became the second force in the constituency in 2025.
First-vote share, Paderborn constituency
SourceIT.NRW (2013, 2017, 2021); Bundeswahlleiterin (2025); 2009 figure from abgeordnetenwatch (single source, official page not retrieved).
The Flexi-Rente, 2016
Office: federal chair of the Mittelstands- und Wirtschaftsunion (2013–2021).
Problem
Rigid rules made it unattractive to combine pension and earnings or to keep working beyond retirement age, at a time when the coalition had introduced retirement at 63 for long-standing contributors.
Response
According to the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, he conceived the Flexi-Rente as a counter-model: people who want to work longer should not be obstructed by the state.
Action
Campaigned for it within the CDU/CSU group and the grand coalition from 2014.
Result
The Bundestag passed the Flexi-Rente legislation in 2016; it was introduced in stages.
Criticism
The skilled-crafts press reported complaints that the new rules were hard to understand (Deutsche Handwerks Zeitung).
Remaining challenge
No evaluation of its employment effect is covered by the sources used here; the later Aktivrente took up the same idea through the tax system.
The CDU basic programme, 7 May 2024
Office: chair of the programme commission (from 2022), CDU Secretary-General (from July 2023).
Problem
The CDU's basic programme dated from 2007; after the 2021 defeat the party lacked an agreed programmatic foundation in opposition.
Response
A new programme centred on individual freedom and responsibility, which he summarised as putting the individual rather than the collective at the centre (KAS).
Action
Chaired the commission through a multi-year consultation and drafting process.
Result
In Freiheit leben. Deutschland sicher in die Zukunft führen was adopted at the 36th Federal Party Congress in Berlin on 7 May 2024 — the party's first new basic programme in 17 years.
Criticism
Church representatives and refugee councils criticised the asylum third-country model and the Leitkultur passages; the Flüchtlingsrat Schleswig-Holstein published an open letter against the draft in February 2024.
Remaining challenge
Several programme positions — the third-country model, a compulsory service year — are not government policy and depend on coalition partners and EU law.
The 2025 federal election and the return to government
Office: CDU Secretary-General, responsible for the party's campaign organisation.
Problem
In 2021 the CDU/CSU had fallen to 24.2% of second votes, its worst result, and gone into opposition.
Response
A campaign built on the new programme and the Agenda 2030 economic programme adopted in January 2025.
Action
Federal election on 23 February 2025; coalition negotiations with the SPD, in which he negotiated health policy.
Result
CDU 22.6% + CSU 6.0% = 28.6% (+4.4 points), largest group with 208 of 630 seats (Bundestag). Coalition agreement signed 5 May 2025; Friedrich Merz elected Chancellor on 6 May.
Criticism
The result was the Union's second-lowest in a federal election since 1949; the AfD roughly doubled its share to 20.8% and became the second-largest party. Merz was elected Chancellor only in a second ballot.
Remaining challenge
Governing with a coalition partner that holds different positions on social policy, financing and migration.
Neue Grundsicherung, 5 March 2026
Office: CDU Secretary-General and, from May 2025, deputy chair of the CDU/CSU group for labour and social affairs.
Problem
As described by the CDU: insufficient incentives and obligations in the Bürgergeld system introduced in 2023.
Response
Replacement by a basic income support built on "Fördern und Fordern" with priority for job placement.
Action
Public advocacy from 2024; spoke at the first reading (15 January 2026) and in the final debate.
Result
Passed by the Bundestag on 5 March 2026 with about 320 votes to 268 (sources differ by one vote); taking effect in stages from 1 July 2026.
Criticism
Diakonie president Rüdiger Schuch called his 2024 figures on "total refusers" false; in 2026 Heidi Reichinnek (Left) and Timon Dzienus (Greens) criticised the law in the Bundestag.
Remaining challenge
Whether faster placement into work materialises can only be evaluated once the law has been fully in effect; labour-market data are not yet available.
The Aktivrente, in force 1 January 2026
Office: CDU Secretary-General; deputy group chair.
Problem
Skills shortages — 157 shortage occupations in 2025 (BA) — while many experienced employees leave work at retirement age.
Response
Tax-free employment earnings for people who work past the standard retirement age, a long-standing CDU and MIT idea.
Action
Bundestag speech of 5 December 2025 calling it the most innovative element of the pension package.
Result
Up to €2,000 a month tax-free; cabinet 15 October 2025, Bundestag 5 December, Bundesrat 19 December 2025, in force 1 January 2026.
Criticism
The Taxpayers' Association criticised the exclusion of the self-employed and announced a constitutional challenge (September 2026).
Remaining challenge
The pension commission he called for must address the longer-term finances of pension insurance, whose contribution rate is projected to rise from 18.6% to 19.9% in 2028 (DRV estimate via press).
Care reform bill adopted by cabinet, 30 September 2026
Office: Federal Minister of Health. The only legislative result of his ministry so far; it is a bill, not a law.
Problem
Social long-term care insurance ran a deficit of €0.49bn in 2025 (BMG); he warned of about €8bn in 2027 and more than €15bn in 2028.
Response
Short-term stabilisation plus an expert commission on structural reform.
Action
The ministry brought the Pflegeneuordnungsgesetz (PNOG) to cabinet two months after his appointment.
Result
Cabinet adoption on 30 September 2026: general rate stable at 3.6%; childless surcharge raised to 0.9% from 2027; no pension cuts for family caregivers.
Criticism
Britta Haßelmann (Greens) said the structural reforms lacked vision; Dagmar Schmidt (SPD) said stabilisation was "not yet reform" (Ärzteblatt).
Remaining challenge
Parliamentary passage, the commission's proposals, and a lasting answer to rising care demand.
What is not listedThe hospital-reform amendment (KHAG), the pharmacy reform and the GKV contribution-stabilisation law were passed under his predecessor Nina Warken and are not counted as his results. See Federal Minister of Health.
The record in one table
Who decided, in what role, and how far each outcome has progressed. "His role" describes his documented part; it does not attribute collective decisions to him alone.
| Outcome | Date | His role | Decided by | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct mandate, Paderborn (×5) | 2009–2025 | Candidate | Voters in the constituency | Re-elected 2025, 45.5% |
| Flexi-Rente | 2016 | MIT chair, advocate | Bundestag (grand coalition) | Law |
| CDU basic programme | 7 May 2024 | Commission chair | 36th Federal Party Congress | Adopted |
| Return to government | 23 Feb – 6 May 2025 | Secretary-General, negotiator (health) | Voters; CDU, CSU and SPD | Coalition in office |
| Neue Grundsicherung | 5 Mar 2026 | Advocate; deputy group chair | Bundestag | Law, phased from 1 Jul 2026 |
| Aktivrente | 1 Jan 2026 | Advocate; deputy group chair | Bundestag and Bundesrat | Law in force |
| Care reform bill (PNOG) | 30 Sep 2026 | Responsible minister | Federal Cabinet | Bill; parliament to follow |
Sources: as listed below. Election figures: IT.NRW and Bundeswahlleiterin.
Two features of this record stand out. Most of the enacted results from his party years concern labour and social policy — incentives to work, conditionality of benefits, work in old age — rather than the economic and tax agenda of Agenda 2030, which has largely remained a programme. And his record as health minister is, at ten weeks, necessarily short: one cabinet bill and a set of announcements whose outcomes depend on parliament, the coalition partner and, in several fields, the Länder and the self-administration of the health system. The priorities dashboard tracks what comes next.
Sources & further reading
- Bundeswahlleiterin — Constituency 136 Paderborn, 2025
- IT.NRW — Constituency 137, 2017 (incl. 2013)
- IT.NRW — Constituency 137, 2021
- abgeordnetenwatch — Profile (2009 result)
- KAS — Biogram Carsten Linnemann
- Deutsche Handwerks Zeitung — Flexi-Rente (2016)
- KAS — CDU basic programme 2024
- Flüchtlingsrat Schleswig-Holstein — Open letter (26 Feb 2024)
- Bundeswahlleiterin — Federal result 2025
- Bundestag — Election result and seats (2025)
- Bundestag — Neue Grundsicherung (5 Mar 2026)
- evangelisch.de — Diakonie criticism (29 Jul 2024)
- Bundestag — Pension package and Aktivrente (5 Dec 2025)
- Bund der Steuerzahler — Aktivrente (Sep 2026)
- Federal Ministry of Health — PNOG (30 Sep 2026)
- Deutsches Ärzteblatt — Reactions to the care law (30 Sep 2026)