Biography · Economist, 2006–2009
Three years in bank research: Frankfurt and Düsseldorf
Between his doctorate and the Bundestag, Carsten Linnemann worked as an economist at two very different banks — the research arm of Germany’s largest private bank, and a specialist lender to medium-sized industry.
- 2006–2007
- Deutsche Bank Research, Frankfurt am Main — economist, assistant to the chief economist
- 2007–2009
- IKB Deutsche Industriebank, Düsseldorf — economist
- Before
- Dr. rer. pol., TU Chemnitz (2006)
- After
- Member of the Bundestag from 2009
The economist’s apprenticeship
Carsten Linnemann’s working life outside politics was short: roughly three years, from completing his doctorate in economics in 2006 to winning the Paderborn constituency in September 2009. It was also concentrated in one profession — that of the bank economist — and in two institutions whose business models could hardly have been more different. Deutsche Bank is a universal bank with global markets operations; IKB Deutsche Industriebank was built to lend to German industrial firms of medium size.
The official CVs of the Bundestag and the Federal Government give the roles in a few words. This page explains what such roles involve, what kind of institutions these were, and how the period connects to his later political themes. It does not attribute forecasts, publications or views to him that cannot be documented, and it treats the turbulent history of IKB in 2007 as the history of the bank, not of an individual employee.
For the wider picture of his non-political roles — books, foundation, honorary posts — see professional career.
Deutsche Bank Research, 2006–2007
The in-house think tank of a global bank.
Deutsche Bank Research is the economic research unit of Deutsche Bank, based in Frankfurt am Main. Like comparable departments at other large banks, it analyses developments in the global and German economy, financial markets, public finances and long-term structural trends, and publishes its work in reports, notes and forecasts aimed at clients, the bank’s management and the wider public.
The Federal Government CV and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung describe Linnemann’s role there as economist and assistant to the chief economist. That combination is typical for a recently qualified economist: analytical work on assigned topics, combined with support for the most senior economist of the bank — preparing material, research briefs and presentations, and following the economic debate on his behalf.
What an assistant to a chief economist does
A bank’s chief economist is its principal public voice on the economy: giving interviews, speaking at conferences, briefing management and clients and signing off the house view on growth, inflation and interest rates. The assistant role is a compressed education in how economic analysis turns into public argument — what to say, in how many words, for which audience.
The official sources do not name the chief economist, and this site does not either. Nor are any publications or forecasts attributed to Linnemann from this period: none were verified.
What bank economists analyse
A generic description of the discipline, not a record of specific outputs.
Business cycles
Tracking output, orders, employment and sentiment indicators to judge where the economy stands in the cycle and where it is heading. Forecasts of GDP growth and unemployment are the most visible product.
Monetary conditions
Interpreting central-bank decisions, interest rates and inflation, and their consequences for borrowers, savers and the bank’s own lending and funding.
Public finances
Analysing government budgets, debt and the social insurance systems — in Germany a large part of public spending runs through pension, health, care and unemployment insurance financed from wages.
Sectors and regions
Assessing industries and regions: which sectors are exposed to exports, energy prices or structural change, and how this affects the credit quality of companies.
Corporate finance
Understanding how companies fund themselves — bank loans, bonds, equity, retained earnings — and how financing conditions change over the cycle.
IKB Deutsche Industriebank, 2007–2009
A lender to the industrial Mittelstand.
In 2007 Linnemann moved to IKB Deutsche Industriebank in Düsseldorf, where he worked as an economist until 2009. Both official CVs confirm the role and the period.
IKB’s institutional profile was distinctive. Unlike a universal bank with branches for private customers, it specialised in long-term financing for medium-sized companies, above all in manufacturing — the industrial Mittelstand of family-owned and owner-managed firms that forms the backbone of German industry. Its core products were investment loans, often with long maturities, and related corporate-finance services.
For an economist, a bank of this kind poses a particular set of questions. How will order books in mechanical engineering, automotive supply or chemicals develop? How sensitive are mid-sized manufacturers to exports, exchange rates and energy costs? What happens to their investment plans when credit becomes scarcer? Economic research in a specialist industrial lender is therefore closely tied to the credit decisions of the bank and the fortunes of its customers.
- Institution
- IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG
- Location
- Düsseldorf
- Role
- Economist
- Period
- 2007–2009
- Bank’s focus
- Long-term lending to medium-sized industrial companies
IKB and the financial crisis of 2007
Documented institutional history of the bank. Nothing here is attributed to Linnemann.
Editorial noteThe official CVs do not give the month in 2007 in which Linnemann joined IKB, so it is not known whether he joined before or after the events of summer 2007. He held a research role as an economist; there is no public record linking him to the bank’s investment decisions or to the crisis. This section is included because it describes the institution he worked for at the time.
In the summer of 2007, IKB became one of the first European banks to be caught up in the US subprime mortgage crisis. Through an off-balance-sheet investment vehicle it had built up large exposures to structured securities backed by US mortgages. When that market seized up, the bank faced losses and funding problems that threatened its survival.
Its principal shareholder, the state-owned development bank KfW, organised a rescue together with the German banking associations. The rescue — and the subsequent support from the federal government — was among the first in a series of interventions in the German banking sector during the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. In 2008 IKB was sold to the US investment firm Lone Star.
For anyone working in economic research in Germany in these years, the crisis was the dominant subject: the collapse of credit markets, the recession of 2008–2009 and the state’s role in stabilising banks and industry. Linnemann left banking for the Bundestag in autumn 2009, as the economy was only beginning to emerge from that recession. Later debates on public finances, the debt brake and the role of the state in the economy — covered under economic policy — took place against this backdrop.
An economist’s three years: upswing, shock, recession
The macroeconomic phases of 2006–2009 in qualitative terms. No figures are attributed to Linnemann.
- 2006–2007: upswingGermany experienced a cyclical recovery driven by exports and investment, with falling unemployment after the labour-market reforms of the mid-2000s. Bank research at the time focused on the durability of the upswing and on rising interest rates.
- 2007–2008: credit shockLosses on US mortgage-backed securities spread to European banks, money markets froze and banks became reluctant to lend to each other. Germany’s first prominent casualty was IKB itself.
- 2008–2009: recessionAfter the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, world trade contracted sharply and Germany’s export-oriented industry suffered its deepest post-war recession. Short-time work and stimulus packages followed.
For a bank economist working on industrial firms, this sequence compressed a complete cycle — boom, financial shock, industrial downturn — into three years. Later debates in which Linnemann took part, from the debt brake to support for the Mittelstand, were shaped by the memory of that crisis across German politics.
Global markets and the industrial heartland
Institutional comparison of the two employers, in qualitative terms.
| Dimension | Deutsche Bank Research | IKB Deutsche Industriebank |
|---|---|---|
| Location | Frankfurt am Main | Düsseldorf |
| Type of unit | Research department of a global universal bank | Economics function within a specialist corporate lender |
| Main audience | Clients, bank management, media and public | Bank management, credit functions, corporate clients |
| Typical focus | Global and German macroeconomy, markets, long-term trends | Industrial sectors, investment cycle, Mittelstand financing |
| Role (official CVs) | Economist; assistant to the chief economist | Economist |
| Period | 2006–2007 | 2007–2009 |
Source for roles and periods: Federal Government CV; German Bundestag biography; KAS. Institutional descriptions are general.
From bank research to political economy
How the economist’s years connect to the politician’s themes — as continuities, not causes.
Mittelstand finance
At IKB the object of analysis was the medium-sized industrial firm. From 2013 to 2021 he chaired the CDU’s Mittelstands- und Wirtschaftsunion.
Macro framing
Bank research thinks in aggregates — growth, employment, labour costs. His political arguments on labour and pensions use the same frame.
Public communication
Supporting a chief economist means turning analysis into short public messages — a skill central to the later role of party Secretary-General.
Contribution costs
As Health Minister he has made non-wage labour costs a guiding principle, linking health financing to employment.
It would overstate the evidence to claim that three years in bank research determined a political outlook. Many economists with similar CVs hold very different views, and Linnemann had been active in the CDU for more than a decade before he joined Deutsche Bank. What the period plausibly supplied is a method and a vocabulary: the habit of asking what a policy costs, who bears the cost and how incentives change, expressed in the language of growth rates and labour costs.
That method has supporters and critics. Supporters argue that German social insurance is, at bottom, a question of financing and employment, and that an economist is well placed to address it. Critics argue that an economic framing can underweight the quality of care, the position of people outside the labour market and the expertise of health professionals. Both arguments are set out on the criticism page and in the health policy overview.
Not included, and why
- Name of the chief economist. The official CVs describe the role as assistant to the chief economist without naming anyone.
- Forecasts or publications. No research notes or forecasts authored by Linnemann in 2006–2009 were verified, so none are cited.
- Start month at IKB. Not given in the official CVs.